The unemployment rate dropped for June, to 9.5%, even though 125,000 jobs were lost. The reason is that the rate is defined by people who are out of work and looking for work. The decline in the civilian labor force demonstrates that people are not looking for work any more. What happens when they do, is the rate will climb up, unless there are available jobs, which there probably won’t be.

The International Institute of Finance (IIF, based in Washington) predicts that as mature economies end their stimulus packages at the beginning of next year, growth will decline. Forecasts for 2011 from around the world predict slight decreases in growth, which when backed by austerity measures, will continue for years.

When the Bush tax cuts expire on January 1, this will be good for the immediate repayment of our massive debt; but many are dissatisfied with higher taxes. The thing is, if growth lags, and the mini stimulus that failed for the third time in Congress this week doesn’t get passed, you can likely expect that double dip we’ve been hearing so much about.

So it seems as though Obama – gasp! – may be right about his economic policy, deferring payment for a few years until the economy has legs. But with his support still well under 50%, don’t hold your breath.